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08:47 pm
peak_oil
[babystrangeloop]
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The Fat Lady Sings (on and on but...)
World oil can go into decline years before there's anything definitive about having reached Peak Oil.
Case in point--1979 looks like this when using US DOE EIA data:
If that chart was of 2008 not 1979 being followed by four years of world oil production declining year on year there would be a hoard of people convinced Peak Oil was past and industrial civilization was over.
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03:44 pm
peak_oil
[babystrangeloop]
[Link] |
Jeremy Rifkin
``...the second assumption of globalization -- cheap energy -- so take your capital to cheap labor markets in Asia ... let them produce the food and the manufactured goods and then ship it back because energy is cheap. The problem is that when oil went over $50/barrel something interesting happened. Inflation started to rear up in front of food prices to petrol. When oil hit $147/barrel July 2008 that's when the crisis hit. You'll recall the entire economic engine of globalization collapsed in July at $147/barrel because inflation was so high all the people stopped purchasing. Then the crisis hit 60 days later because you couldn't maintain that delusionary, credit-based debt culture. When the engine stops, then the financial markets collapse sixty days later--they're connected...'' -- excerpted from this Jeremy Rifkin lecture.
More about Jeremy Rifkin
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09:54 am
peakoil_prep
[theheretic]
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That Which Is Worth Keeping, and Sharing
The underlying problem, which the Liberals have right, is that it is unfair that only the First World gets this high standard of living, and that we've used up the cheap oil to the point that the Third World may never get to our level, EVER. That is a problem. Something the UN has right is the need for the world's residents to reach the same level of development, the same degree of opportunity so our geniuses make things better instead of turn into crime bosses and warlords ruling their fiefdoms with blood and bullets. The thing the Republicans have right is respect for civil liberties (sorry, if you were expecting Democrats there you'd have to examine the party Lincoln belonged to), though I must state that the former President was not a Republican, ideologically, while he was banning all our civil rights. The thing the Democrats have right is the ideological concern for the poor. Alas, all parties stray and screw up and do more harm than good for the most part. I am not so concerned about that. It is becoming painfully obvious that both American political parties deny the rights of the Middle Class and if they don't figure this out they will cease to exist, or we'll have a revolution again and that will cost a lot of lives and result in decades of social and economic disruption, thus lowering standards of living in a hail of gunfire, disappearances, bombings, and blood stains. We really don't need that. A political revitalization would be far preferred. And quicker.
Everyone on earth should be able to enjoy stable currency, hot showers, extra food in the cupboard, free/cheap access to information, education, affordable medical care (and that's a can of worms), the right to self defense, the right of travel, the right to speak your mind, basically the American Bill of Rights plus clean water, hot showers, food, and health. These are things which are in reason, and can be had for even the poorest people on earth, even in Africa. They're getting there anyway, catching up, and scalable cheap Green technology is helping it happen. I'm not talking Fuzzy Hippie crap, I'm talking simple brute force technology that can be built on site with minimal tools and make lives better. Engineering for the third world wins Nobel prizes. It also stops or at least delays wars, lessens their severity. Fundamental respect for nations by decision makers is necessary, and that's going to take time before the bias ends. Long Way Down, despite being an adventure motorcycle trip, is good for seeing the degree we are alike with the rest of the world, the places we were taught to fear. Even as they crossed the border into South Africa and were told how amazing it was they were still alive by the guards, the reality is people just want to live, with some comforts and security, and be allowed to choose their life path themselves. For most, violence is not even considered. That's the work of the criminal mind, forever denied the opportunity to excel under law. Its screwed up. Its beyond what WE can fix.
We do have to keep it in mind as we gradually find the middling ground, as the economy continues to slow and we see our raises not happen, take pay cuts instead, suffer the consequences of this increasingly weak economy, no matter how much the Papers lie about it. With a fridge and a radio and clean water, you can live. With a light you can learn. With hot showers you don't have to stink. With food in the pantry you can have hobbies and crafts. With means to travel you can escape from the daily grind and expand your horizons into other ways of thinking, of living. We take these for granted. We shouldn't. We should insist on them being the base level of existence, for everyone who wants it.
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12:59 pm
peakoil_prep
[theheretic]
[Link] |
NWO Transit and Transition
I have posted, several times, about the need for us to take up motorcycling. The gardening, canning, herbs and chicken coops are obviously important too. Ways to stay ahead of the creditors, to become debt free and stay that way. America, and Europeans, have all buried themselves in debt and our nations are suffering the consequences of pyramid schemes at the national level. The First World is going to have to get used to more Third World living conditions. The roads, the power brownouts, unlimited delays in everything you can imagine as the ripple effect and unintended consequences wreaks havoc with the various interdepencies we call Civilization.
I recently watched a series of programs about adventure cycling called The Long Way Round and The Long Way Down, which are about crossing Asia on motorcycles, including Mongolia and Siberia, and the other about traversing Africa, from Tunisia to Egypt, then South to Sudan (peaceful, since it was the Eastern Desert), Ethiopia (very pretty mountains), Kenya and Rwanda (surprisingly nice country), then across Botswana to Namibian coast and south to South Africa. Every country they reached had a similar story "Oh you'll be fine here but those other guys, they're real bastards".
Seeing Africa from the back of a motorcycle was eye opening, even from the remote comfort of a documentary. It is way less dangerous than it was even a few short years ago. Someday soon, Africa is going to get settled, exploited, turned into suburbs with Taco Bell and Burger King, lions or not. I can't help but wonder if we aren't going to start paying more attention to Australian Rat-Car designs as our own roads fall apart. Ozzie Rat Bikes make certain sense in a post-pavement world. I do think we're heading that way. If for no other reason that pavement is made of either concrete, which takes enormous amounts of natural gas to make, or asphalt, which is made of lots of tar, an oil byproduct which is worth more when cracked into fuel and sold.
Are your roads falling apart? Are you seeing some infrastructure decay as budget cuts started affecting things like roads in your area?
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10:51 am
peak_oil
[babystrangeloop]
[Link] |
And Now For Something Completely Different
MEND breakes ceasefire rule, attacks Shell/Chevron pipeline ``WARRI – ABOUT 35 militants, belonging to the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger-Delta (MEND), armed with rocket launchers, heavy calibre machine guns and assault rifles attacked in the early hours of today, a major Shell/Chevron crude oil pipeline located in Abonema, Rivers state.''
Nigeria Rebels Say They Attacked Shell, Chevron Pipe ``Attacks by armed groups in the oil-rich delta region cut more than 25 percent of the country’s crude output between 2006 and 2009. Nigeria, which vies with Angola for Africa’s top oil producer, is the fifth-biggest source of U.S. oil imports.''
Reuters Q+A-What is at stake in Nigeria's Niger Delta? ``The unrest over the past three years has prevented the OPEC member from pumping much above two thirds of its 3 million barrels per day installed capacity.''
Just another undeclared war over oil--but is it the only thing going on here?
(click me)
Or is Nigeria permanently past peak production?
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